Fantasy Football Week 1 Starter Report

The final week of the NFL preseason is decision time for many football teams. Starters are named and cuts are made. Here is a list of week 1 starters for fantasy football teams.

• Byron Leftwich is out as the Jacksonville Jaguars QB and will be released or traded. David Garrard will start at quarterback.
  
• Tatum Bell will start at running back for the Lions in week one in place of the injured Kevin Jones.
• LenDale White is the likely week 1 starter for the Tennessee Titans and will share time with Chris Brown.
• Bengals kicker Shayne Graham is confident of a week 1 start.
  
• Charlie Frye will officially start week 1 at QB for the Cleveland Browns.
  
• Daunte Culpepper is the "likely" week 1 starter for the Oakland Raiders.
  
• Brandon Jones will "likely" start at WR for the Tennessee Titans.
  
• Donald Driver is confident that he will be ready to start at WR in week 1 for the Green Bay Packers.

My Ideal Fantasy Football Draft

My main fantasy football draft is coming up this weekend and I typically like to plan out the first 5 or 6 rounds to specifically target players that I would like on my team. Obviously, the task of predicting players gets more difficult each round. Here is my current draft board of players that I will target this weekend. I have the 4th pick in a 10-team league.

Round 1

First Choice: Joseph Addai - Indianapolis Colts
Second Choice: Frank Gore - San Francisco 49ers

This is the easiest round to pick. At #4 I am virtually guaranteed to draft one of these players (If not, it means that someone has passed on LT or Steven Jackson......unlikely).


Round 2

First Choice: Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars
Second Choice: Brandon Jacobs - NY Giants
Third Choice: Marvin Harrison - Indianapolis Colts

Jones-Drew is an explosive back and should prove to be a solid #2 back. He may have some down games, but I feel confident enough to take a risk here. If drew is gone, I'll go with Jacobs who should score a lot of TD's for the NY Giants. If both guys are gone, Marvin Harrison is a sure-thing receiver who will provide consistent scoring.


Round 3

First Choice: Chad Johnson - Cincinnati Bengals
Second Choice: Torry Holt - St. Louis Rams
Third Choice: Thomas Jones - NY Jets
Fourth Choice: Cedric Benson - Chicago Bears
Third Choice: Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals

Picking #4 should allow me to get a top tier receiver in the 3rd round. Chad Johnson would be my first choice here, followed by the slightly hobbled Torry Holt. If those guys are gone, I'd take a look at Carson Palmer if available....although I'd like to hold off until round 4 for QB. If I end up with Harrison in the 2nd round, then I would look at Cedric Benson or Thomas Jones to fill up my #2 RB spot.

Round 4

First Choice: Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia Eagles
Second Choice: Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints
Third Choice: Tom Brady - New England Patriots
Fourth Choice: Marc Bulger - St. Louis Rams
Fifth Choice: Marques Colston - New Orleans Saints
Sixth Choice: Anquan Boldin - Arizona

This is my target round for QB. If I wait any longer, I feel I'm taking too big of a risk. I've listed them in order of who I would like to take, although I'm not sure who will be available. If I happen to take Palmer early in round three, then I'll go with another WR here.

Round 5

First Choice: Jerious Norwood - Atlanta Falcons
Second Choice: Jamal Lewis - Cleveland Browns
Third Choice: Carnell Williams - Tampa Bay Bucs
Fourth Choice: Ahman Green - Houston Texans

Round 6

First Choice: Fred Taylor - Jacksonville Jaguars
Second Choice: Julius Jones - Dallas Cowboys
Third Choice: Ladell Betts - Washington Redskins
Fourth Choice: DeAngelo Williams - Carolina Panthers

In rounds 5 and 6 I typically like to stack up at running back. Its a high injury-prone position and in my opinion you can never have too many.

Round 7 and beyond become more hard to predict. I will most likely target a tight end in round 7 and then bulk up at WR in rounds 8 and 9. I'll save kicker and defense until the end of the draft.

2007 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

The strength of a teams schedule can have a huge effect on how a player performs throughout the fantasy football season. Even a great player can get shut down against the leagues best defenses. Here is an article from ESPN that has developed the following strength of schedule rankings based upon how many times a team plays the tougher defensive teams in the league.

	Toughest		Average		Easiest
	Lions	9	Bengals	2	Titans	-11
	Packers	7	Browns	2	Jaguars	-9
	Redskins	7	Raiders	2	Buccaneers	-8
	Chargers	5	Bills	1	Panthers	-7
	Bears	4	Colts	1	Cardinals	-6
	Jets	4	Giants	1	Patriots	-5
	Cowboys	3	Seahawks	1	Falcons	-5
	Broncos	3	Eagles	0	Texans	-4
	Chiefs	3	Rams	-1	Ravens	-3
	Vikings	3	Dolphins	-2	Saints	-3
	Steelers	3
	49ers	3

Looking at the easiest schedules, this ranking sheet bodes well for players like Deuce McAllister, Ahman Green, Laurence Maroney, Carnell Williams, and Edgerrin James.

On the side of the difficult schedules, you may have some down weeks with RB's like Brandon Jackson, Clinton Portis, and Cedric Benson.

Top 5 Fantasy Football Handcuffs at Running Back

A great handcuff running back can literally win you a season. I learned this a few years ago when I held Larry Johnson on my bench for a number of weeks while Priest Holmes started. Eventually, Priest Holmes went down with an injury (which I predicted) and LJ proceeded to go nuts the rest of the season.

If you are looking for a great fantasy football handcuff at running back this year, try these guys out. (I'm leaving out players who I feel are part of a 2-running back system).

1. Michael Turner - San Diego Chargers (looks to be recovering nicely from ankle sprain)
2. Leon Washington - NY Jets
3. Mike Bell - Denver Broncos
4. Correll Buckhalter - Philadelphia Eagles
   
5. Ron Dayne - Houston Texans

ESPN's Eric Karabell lists 8 Tiers of Running Backs

If you are an ESPN Insider, you can read Eric Karabell's article outlining 8 tiers of fantasy football running backs. Many of the groupings make a lot of sense.......but here are some surprises.

• Tier 1 consists of two running backs, LT and Steven Jackson.
• Willie Parker is now a clear cut tier 2 running back.
  
• Ronnie Brown leads of the tier 4 running backs.
  
• Marion Barber and Julius Jones are both considered tier 5 running backs.
  
• Some former tier 1 and 2 backs are now tier 5 - Ahman Green, Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor.
  
• The highly touted Maurice Jones-Drew is a tier 4 back.
  

Start Tatum Bell Week 1 against Oakland

New Detroit Lions RB Tatum Bell should see significant playing time week 1 when they visit the Oakland Raiders. RB Kevin Jones will start the season on the PUP list. However, watch for TJ Duckett to potentially steal carries around the goal line.

Oakland is not a great team, and Bell could post some solid numbers week 1. Bell may provide decent fantasy value on your bench for the first 5 weeks until Jones returns.

Safety First - Draft Rudi Johnson With Confidence

Rudi Johnson rushed 13 times for 69 yards on Monday night against the Falcons, showing signs that he is once again ready to rush for over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns. Johnson has quietly put together one of the most consistent string of productive fantasy football seasons in recent years. He is not an explosive RB, but he runs hard and gets his numbers. Furthermore, he is in one of the leagues most potent offenses and should have plenty of scoring opportunities.

That being said, Rudi Johnson is one of the safest choices you can make in fantasy football. I'm always very reluctant to take chances in the early rounds of the draft. Its too risky and can easily put an early end to your season. If you are drafting in the second half of the 1st round, Rudi is a smart choice and one that will win you fantasy football matchups on a weekly basis.

2007 Fantasy Football Looks and Touches Projections

Matt Buser at writes a great article on the number of looks and touches each player gets during the regular season. Its a great way to help determine the potential value of a fantasy player. "Looks" refer to the number of times a player was targeted with a pass and "touches" refers to the number of times an RB carried or caught a football.

Buser projects the leaders in each fantasy football category for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Here are the projected top 5 in each category.

Running Back

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - 402
2. Steven Jackson - 399
3. Larry Johnson - 391
4. Edgerrin James - 385
5. Joseph Addai - 382

Wide Receiver

1. Torry Holt - 173
2. Donald Driver - 165
3. Terrell Owens - 156
4. Andre Johnson - 155
5. Anquan Boldin - 154

Tight End

1. Antonio Gates - 126
2. Todd Heap - 116
3. Jeremy Shockey - 115
4. Alge Crumpler - 112
5. Chris Cooley - 111

For the most part, these projections reflect the overall fantasy football ranked value for each of the players. Some of the exceptions include RB Edgerrin James and in the WR category Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin. These 3 a great players and could have great years, but they are ranked higher in "looks and touches" projections than they are in points projections.

However, these projections could represent an opportunity for these players to have tier 1 seasons. For example, if Edge is able to increase his yards per carry this year, those 385 touches could translate into 1,500 yards. Arizona has not shown signs of huge improvement in the running game thus far, but that could change as the season goes on.

Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin also have the talent to have tier 1 seasons. Each Wr should benefit from improved QB play this year in Matt Schaub and a more experienced Matt Leinart.

Buser examines looks and touches weekly and it examining it should be a routine part of your weekly fantasy football research. You may be able to discover a waiver wire player that could turn your season around.

Top 5 Fantasy Football 2 Running Back Systems

Two-back systems have become more of the norm than the exception in the NFL. Some of these systems are so successful that you can't go wrong with either player. Others are not so lucrative. Here are the top 5 two-back systems in the NFL.

1. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister
2. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts
4. Julius Jones and Marion Barber
5. DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams

A dark horse for 2-back system of the year is Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood. It remains to be seen how much time will be split between these two, but I would predict that both players see plenty of carries.

Final Mock Draft for Rotoworld

Rotoworld posted its final mock draft analysis today with just over a week until kickoff. Their 12 team draft stayed pretty close to the popular draft boards except for a few exceptions.

• Jones-Drew went #9 overall.....a bit early I think.
• Rudi Johnson dropped to the 16th overall pick....a steal.
• Peyton Manning lasted to the end of the second round.
• Reggie Wayne was the 4th overall WR taken.
• Brandon Jacobs lasted until round 3.
• Brees, Bulger, and Brady lasted until round 5.
  

According to Rotoworld, QB's typically go later in industry league drafts and I would agree. Be careful waiting until round 5 for a QB in your draft.