Fantasy Football Week 1 Starter Report

The final week of the NFL preseason is decision time for many football teams. Starters are named and cuts are made. Here is a list of week 1 starters for fantasy football teams.

• Byron Leftwich is out as the Jacksonville Jaguars QB and will be released or traded. David Garrard will start at quarterback.
  
• Tatum Bell will start at running back for the Lions in week one in place of the injured Kevin Jones.
• LenDale White is the likely week 1 starter for the Tennessee Titans and will share time with Chris Brown.
• Bengals kicker Shayne Graham is confident of a week 1 start.
  
• Charlie Frye will officially start week 1 at QB for the Cleveland Browns.
  
• Daunte Culpepper is the "likely" week 1 starter for the Oakland Raiders.
  
• Brandon Jones will "likely" start at WR for the Tennessee Titans.
  
• Donald Driver is confident that he will be ready to start at WR in week 1 for the Green Bay Packers.

My Ideal Fantasy Football Draft

My main fantasy football draft is coming up this weekend and I typically like to plan out the first 5 or 6 rounds to specifically target players that I would like on my team. Obviously, the task of predicting players gets more difficult each round. Here is my current draft board of players that I will target this weekend. I have the 4th pick in a 10-team league.

Round 1

First Choice: Joseph Addai - Indianapolis Colts
Second Choice: Frank Gore - San Francisco 49ers

This is the easiest round to pick. At #4 I am virtually guaranteed to draft one of these players (If not, it means that someone has passed on LT or Steven Jackson......unlikely).


Round 2

First Choice: Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars
Second Choice: Brandon Jacobs - NY Giants
Third Choice: Marvin Harrison - Indianapolis Colts

Jones-Drew is an explosive back and should prove to be a solid #2 back. He may have some down games, but I feel confident enough to take a risk here. If drew is gone, I'll go with Jacobs who should score a lot of TD's for the NY Giants. If both guys are gone, Marvin Harrison is a sure-thing receiver who will provide consistent scoring.


Round 3

First Choice: Chad Johnson - Cincinnati Bengals
Second Choice: Torry Holt - St. Louis Rams
Third Choice: Thomas Jones - NY Jets
Fourth Choice: Cedric Benson - Chicago Bears
Third Choice: Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals

Picking #4 should allow me to get a top tier receiver in the 3rd round. Chad Johnson would be my first choice here, followed by the slightly hobbled Torry Holt. If those guys are gone, I'd take a look at Carson Palmer if available....although I'd like to hold off until round 4 for QB. If I end up with Harrison in the 2nd round, then I would look at Cedric Benson or Thomas Jones to fill up my #2 RB spot.

Round 4

First Choice: Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia Eagles
Second Choice: Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints
Third Choice: Tom Brady - New England Patriots
Fourth Choice: Marc Bulger - St. Louis Rams
Fifth Choice: Marques Colston - New Orleans Saints
Sixth Choice: Anquan Boldin - Arizona

This is my target round for QB. If I wait any longer, I feel I'm taking too big of a risk. I've listed them in order of who I would like to take, although I'm not sure who will be available. If I happen to take Palmer early in round three, then I'll go with another WR here.

Round 5

First Choice: Jerious Norwood - Atlanta Falcons
Second Choice: Jamal Lewis - Cleveland Browns
Third Choice: Carnell Williams - Tampa Bay Bucs
Fourth Choice: Ahman Green - Houston Texans

Round 6

First Choice: Fred Taylor - Jacksonville Jaguars
Second Choice: Julius Jones - Dallas Cowboys
Third Choice: Ladell Betts - Washington Redskins
Fourth Choice: DeAngelo Williams - Carolina Panthers

In rounds 5 and 6 I typically like to stack up at running back. Its a high injury-prone position and in my opinion you can never have too many.

Round 7 and beyond become more hard to predict. I will most likely target a tight end in round 7 and then bulk up at WR in rounds 8 and 9. I'll save kicker and defense until the end of the draft.

2007 Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule

The strength of a teams schedule can have a huge effect on how a player performs throughout the fantasy football season. Even a great player can get shut down against the leagues best defenses. Here is an article from ESPN that has developed the following strength of schedule rankings based upon how many times a team plays the tougher defensive teams in the league.

	Toughest		Average		Easiest
	Lions	9	Bengals	2	Titans	-11
	Packers	7	Browns	2	Jaguars	-9
	Redskins	7	Raiders	2	Buccaneers	-8
	Chargers	5	Bills	1	Panthers	-7
	Bears	4	Colts	1	Cardinals	-6
	Jets	4	Giants	1	Patriots	-5
	Cowboys	3	Seahawks	1	Falcons	-5
	Broncos	3	Eagles	0	Texans	-4
	Chiefs	3	Rams	-1	Ravens	-3
	Vikings	3	Dolphins	-2	Saints	-3
	Steelers	3
	49ers	3

Looking at the easiest schedules, this ranking sheet bodes well for players like Deuce McAllister, Ahman Green, Laurence Maroney, Carnell Williams, and Edgerrin James.

On the side of the difficult schedules, you may have some down weeks with RB's like Brandon Jackson, Clinton Portis, and Cedric Benson.

Top 5 Fantasy Football Handcuffs at Running Back

A great handcuff running back can literally win you a season. I learned this a few years ago when I held Larry Johnson on my bench for a number of weeks while Priest Holmes started. Eventually, Priest Holmes went down with an injury (which I predicted) and LJ proceeded to go nuts the rest of the season.

If you are looking for a great fantasy football handcuff at running back this year, try these guys out. (I'm leaving out players who I feel are part of a 2-running back system).

1. Michael Turner - San Diego Chargers (looks to be recovering nicely from ankle sprain)
2. Leon Washington - NY Jets
3. Mike Bell - Denver Broncos
4. Correll Buckhalter - Philadelphia Eagles
   
5. Ron Dayne - Houston Texans

ESPN's Eric Karabell lists 8 Tiers of Running Backs

If you are an ESPN Insider, you can read Eric Karabell's article outlining 8 tiers of fantasy football running backs. Many of the groupings make a lot of sense.......but here are some surprises.

• Tier 1 consists of two running backs, LT and Steven Jackson.
• Willie Parker is now a clear cut tier 2 running back.
  
• Ronnie Brown leads of the tier 4 running backs.
  
• Marion Barber and Julius Jones are both considered tier 5 running backs.
  
• Some former tier 1 and 2 backs are now tier 5 - Ahman Green, Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor.
  
• The highly touted Maurice Jones-Drew is a tier 4 back.
  

Start Tatum Bell Week 1 against Oakland

New Detroit Lions RB Tatum Bell should see significant playing time week 1 when they visit the Oakland Raiders. RB Kevin Jones will start the season on the PUP list. However, watch for TJ Duckett to potentially steal carries around the goal line.

Oakland is not a great team, and Bell could post some solid numbers week 1. Bell may provide decent fantasy value on your bench for the first 5 weeks until Jones returns.

Safety First - Draft Rudi Johnson With Confidence

Rudi Johnson rushed 13 times for 69 yards on Monday night against the Falcons, showing signs that he is once again ready to rush for over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns. Johnson has quietly put together one of the most consistent string of productive fantasy football seasons in recent years. He is not an explosive RB, but he runs hard and gets his numbers. Furthermore, he is in one of the leagues most potent offenses and should have plenty of scoring opportunities.

That being said, Rudi Johnson is one of the safest choices you can make in fantasy football. I'm always very reluctant to take chances in the early rounds of the draft. Its too risky and can easily put an early end to your season. If you are drafting in the second half of the 1st round, Rudi is a smart choice and one that will win you fantasy football matchups on a weekly basis.

2007 Fantasy Football Looks and Touches Projections

Matt Buser at writes a great article on the number of looks and touches each player gets during the regular season. Its a great way to help determine the potential value of a fantasy player. "Looks" refer to the number of times a player was targeted with a pass and "touches" refers to the number of times an RB carried or caught a football.

Buser projects the leaders in each fantasy football category for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Here are the projected top 5 in each category.

Running Back

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - 402
2. Steven Jackson - 399
3. Larry Johnson - 391
4. Edgerrin James - 385
5. Joseph Addai - 382

Wide Receiver

1. Torry Holt - 173
2. Donald Driver - 165
3. Terrell Owens - 156
4. Andre Johnson - 155
5. Anquan Boldin - 154

Tight End

1. Antonio Gates - 126
2. Todd Heap - 116
3. Jeremy Shockey - 115
4. Alge Crumpler - 112
5. Chris Cooley - 111

For the most part, these projections reflect the overall fantasy football ranked value for each of the players. Some of the exceptions include RB Edgerrin James and in the WR category Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin. These 3 a great players and could have great years, but they are ranked higher in "looks and touches" projections than they are in points projections.

However, these projections could represent an opportunity for these players to have tier 1 seasons. For example, if Edge is able to increase his yards per carry this year, those 385 touches could translate into 1,500 yards. Arizona has not shown signs of huge improvement in the running game thus far, but that could change as the season goes on.

Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin also have the talent to have tier 1 seasons. Each Wr should benefit from improved QB play this year in Matt Schaub and a more experienced Matt Leinart.

Buser examines looks and touches weekly and it examining it should be a routine part of your weekly fantasy football research. You may be able to discover a waiver wire player that could turn your season around.

Top 5 Fantasy Football 2 Running Back Systems

Two-back systems have become more of the norm than the exception in the NFL. Some of these systems are so successful that you can't go wrong with either player. Others are not so lucrative. Here are the top 5 two-back systems in the NFL.

1. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister
2. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts
4. Julius Jones and Marion Barber
5. DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams

A dark horse for 2-back system of the year is Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood. It remains to be seen how much time will be split between these two, but I would predict that both players see plenty of carries.

Final Mock Draft for Rotoworld

Rotoworld posted its final mock draft analysis today with just over a week until kickoff. Their 12 team draft stayed pretty close to the popular draft boards except for a few exceptions.

• Jones-Drew went #9 overall.....a bit early I think.
• Rudi Johnson dropped to the 16th overall pick....a steal.
• Peyton Manning lasted to the end of the second round.
• Reggie Wayne was the 4th overall WR taken.
• Brandon Jacobs lasted until round 3.
• Brees, Bulger, and Brady lasted until round 5.
  

According to Rotoworld, QB's typically go later in industry league drafts and I would agree. Be careful waiting until round 5 for a QB in your draft.

Joseph Addai Moving up the RB Rankings

In the draft boards that I watch, Joseph Addai has been moving steadily up the charts. I saw him as low as 6th earlier in the preseason. Now he seems to be a consistent #4 pick in the fantasy draft behind either Larry Johnson or Frank Gore.

I think its difficult to go wrong with any of these guys, but Addai will have lots of scoring opportunities in the Colts offense. He clearly plays on the better teams than LF and FG, and he is so far young and injury free.

I think that Joseph Addai is now a legitimate #3 pick in the draft and a safe choice at that spot in the first round.

Overvalued and Undervalued FFL RB's

TJ Thomas of FFtoday published an article this week discussing overvalued and undervalued running backs. They are as follows:

Overvalued:

1. Larry Johnson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Marshawn Lynch

Undervalued

1. Travis Henry
2. Carnell "Cadillac" Williams
3. Deuce McAllister

I agree with most of these but disagree with a couple. I understand that the Chiefs offensive line is in a state of transision, but I disagree that having Damon Huard at QB will have a huge effect on the running game. Huard led the Chiefs through the first 10 weeks of the season last year before Trent Green returned and did pretty well. Look for a slight decline from LJ, but nothing to panic about.

ESPN's Matthew Berry lists Maurice Jones-Drew as one of the players he loves and says he will have a monster year. I tend to lean more toward's Berry's analysis than Thomas....although I do get skeptical when the hype gets too high on a player. However, Jones-Drew is a huge talent and will have some huge fantasy football games this year.

Finally, Travis Henry has a lot of potential but I would hardly say he is undervalued. I think injuries could be a real concern for Henry this year, and I'm always skeptical of a Denver RB getting the majority of the carries for an entire year.

Westbrook is Good...But How Many Games is he Good For?

Every year I am tempted to draft the electric RB/WR Brian Westbrook, but I am always scared away by his frequent trips to the injury list. Last year, Westbrook played an impressive 15 games and put up great numbers (1217 rush yards, 77 receptions, 11 TDs).

But will he be able to do it for another year? He has had some knee swelling and missed some practice in the preseason, but all signs point to a relatively healthy Westbrook for the season opener.

I've always thought of Westbrook as a big gamble pick, and I don't like to take gambles early in the draft. He's good enough to singlehandedly win games for you, but he can also ruin your season in an instant with an injury.

Depending on your order in the draft, you may not even have to deal with the Westbrook dilemma. But if you do and you decide to pick Westbrook, then make sure to play it safe with your next pick. A team full of risky players could have an early exit in the fantasy football playoffs.

FF 2007 Injury Report - Brandon Jackson

The Green Bay Packers are in trouble at running back. Apparently, RB Brandon Jackson may not be ready for the week 1 opener due to a concussion. Vernand Morency is also nursing a knee injury and may not be fully ready to go.

That leaves Noah Herron and DeShawn Wynn to fill in the current gap.

My advice, take a pass on starting a Green Bay RB in week 1 in their week 1 matchup against Philadelphia.

Watch 2 NFL Games at the Same Time

The NFL Sunday Ticket is a dream for anyone who is a fantasy football addict. You can watch every player you have playing on Sunday and keep track of your home NFL team.

If you have have the Superfan option, then your Sundays just got even better. This year, you will have the ability to stream any NFL game on Sunday live via your computer. You can now watch one game on your main TV and keep track of another fantasy player's game on your computer. It sounds like a great option to me.

Plus, if you are traveling, you don't have to worry about missing any great games because you can bring your laptop with you and access them online.

Fantasy Football Injury Alert - Torry Holt

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Torry Holt is behind schedule in his knee rehab and is reportedly only 70-80% healthy. Holt is quoted as being unsure it will ever completely heal.

I think this clearly moves Holt down a few notches. In fact, he may even be knocked down to the second tier of receivers. Holt has always been a master of the long ball, and if his speed is down, it may be more difficult for him to get open.

When to Draft a Fantasy Football Defense?

Typically there are only 1 or 2 fantasy football defenses that are worth drafting as early as the 5th or 6th rounds. Lately, these spots have been held exclusively by the Baltimore Ravens and the Chicago Bears. Depending on your fantasy scoring system, these teams can often give you a double digit advantage over your opponent, which is a huge difference.

But how early is too early? And what do you do when these 2 teams are gone?

Typically, it becomes very difficult to score one of these two high scoring defenses after the 5th or 6th rounds. Is it worth it to draft these teams that early? Maybe. Part of it depends on the type of team you are trying to put together and what players are left one draft board. If its between the Bears D and your WR2 in round 5, you are probably better off going with the Bears D and waiting a round on your number 2 wide receiver. However, if you are still looking for a starting QB that late, you probably won't want to wait any longer.

After these two defenses are gone, it will be a long time before you will want to consider another D. After the 10th round, you can look at the Chargers and Dolphins defenses. Beyond that, you can feel comfortable waiting until the last or next to last round of your fantasy draft. At that point, there is not much difference between the teams left on the board.

Big Fantasy Football Names - Frank Gore

Frank Gore seems to be inexplicably dropping down fantasy football draft boards right now. And that is a shame and an opportunity for those of you drafting in the first round. Gore has become one of the big fantasy football names at RB. According to Rotoworld.com, Gore's hand is healing and he is craving some action. Missing preseason football games is no big deal for an NFL running back. In fact, it has been used as a strategy to maintain the health and energy of the great LaDainian Tomlinson.

Don't forget so quickly what Frank Gore accomplished last year for the 49ers (5 yards shy of 1700 hards, 9 TDs, 61 receptions). He is in a division that typically does not defend the run well, and plays behind a solid offensive line. Look for Gore to do more of the same this year and draft him with confidence.

2007 Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Analysis

Its getting close to the end of mock draft season. The NFL regular season kicks of a week from Thursday. Many of you have probably already had your big live draft. But for those of you still planning out your draft board, here are a few late preseason observations.

• Joseph Addai has clearly become a top 5 draft choice. The Colts strong preseason showing last week only solidifies his position even more.
  
• Don't wait until round 5 to draft a QB. The risk is too high and you may end up with an inconsistent player at a very important position.
  
• Reggie Wayne may be the only elite WR left in the 3rd round.
• TJ Houshmandzadeh, Marques Colston and Larry Fitzgerald could be great WR2 value picks in the late 3rd and early 4th rounds.
  
• If you want the Chicago Defense, you may have to spend a 5th round pick.
  

Good luck in those fantasy drafts. Practicing in a mock draft ahead of time is a great way to prepare for the real draft.

Brandon Jones Fantasy Football Report

Brandon Jones was considered a fantasy football sleeper at WR for the Titans, but his inconsistent preseason may change his status to deep sleeper.

According to Rotoworld, Jones was targeted just once by Vince Young in the last preseason game and may have possibly lost his starting job. Jones showed flashes of greatness last year, including a 100+ yard 1 TD game against Buffalo at the end of the season.

Jones may turn things around this year, but because of his inconsistency, he is probably not the kind of player that you want in your fantasy lineup every week.

2007 Fantasy Football Injury Report - Kevin Jones, Donald Driver.........

There is a pretty good list of banged up ff league players on the injury list right now, although some of them are not thought to be serious. Here are some updates.

• Kevin Jones - Likely to miss the first few weeks of the regular season
• Donald Driver - Will miss preseason finale........Packers are optimistic
• Michael Turner - LT's backup has the dreaded high ankle sprain.
  
• Torry Holt - Swelling in the knee, may not be 100% for week 1.
  
• Tatum Bell - Minor shin injury
• Clinton Portis - Knee tendinitis....not cutting in practice but says he'll be there week 1.
  

Fantasy Football Rankings and Strategy - A Different Take

Every year I try to prepare a new fantasy football draft strategy that is tailored for the unique circumstances that come with each new season. But I always try to keep a few fundamental rules at the forefront of my draft strategy. One of those rules is to remember that fantasy games are won by winning your weekly matchup with another opponent.......not by scoring the most points in a season. This is an important distinction to make, and one that should affect your draft strategy. It is also an essential point that many fantasy football experts fail to recognize or emphasize. I've seen many teams outscore the league by dozens of points but still fail to place in the top 3.

That being said, I try to design my fantasy football team in such a way that gives me an advantage over my opponents at every position on my team. I look at my entire fantasy lineup across the board and try to put together a team that has a top 5 player at every position.........even TE, kicker and defense. I know that the common rule is to draft kickers and defenses late........and I agree to an extent. (I've heard the Robbie Gould argument many times this year). However, drafting a perennial kicker/defense/tight end scorer earlier than your peers gives you an opportunity to develop an advantage at those positions. It doesn't matter if there is still a WR on the board that would outscore that kicker.....it only matters that you have a weekly advantage at every position.

That's why I typically try to draft a WR in the second round. There are only a few WR in the league that are guaranteed to produce every season. Getting a Marvin Harrison or a Torry Holt in round 2 gives you a clear advantage at that position over every team in the league. And you can still pick up a RB in the third round that is comparable to almost any RB drafted middle to late in the second round.

Keep this fundamental rule in mind as you draft. I believe it is critical to producing a winning fantasy football team every season.

2007 Fantasy Football Defense Rankings

Looking for the best fantasy football defense to draft for you team? Check out this free fantasy football defense report and adjust your draft sheet accordingly.

Rank Team
1 Ravens - Lost Adalius Thomas, but they are still the best in the NFL.
2 Bears - May lean more towards 2-deep zone, which could affect turnovers.
3 Patriots - The Raven's loss is the Patriot's gain......Thomas should improve the D.
4 Chargers - Led league in sacks last year.....but lost a lot of coaching.
5 Jaguars - Should be healthier and stingier this year.
6 Broncos - Addition of Dre Bly should help.
7 Dolphins - Will Joey Porter make a difference........the verdict is out.
8 Vikings - Great at stopping the run.
9 Eagles - If Kearse returns to health, this D will be solid.
10 Panthers - A new DB's coach could improve the Panthers secondary.

Move Andre Johnson up Your Fantasy Football Draft Board

Andre Johnson quietly racked up over a 100 receptions last year for the Houston Texans with David Carr at QB. This year, the Texans upgraded their QB position with Matt Schaub, former backup to Michael Vick. Schaub should provide more consistency than Carr at the QB position, which should translate into a huge fantasy football season for WR Andre Johnson.

Schaub has looked sharp in the preasons completing 12 of 16 passes for 109 yards against the Dallas Cowboys in his 3rd preseason game.